Kotzebue, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

164
FXAK69 PAFG 152035
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1235 PM AKDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather persists across Northern Alaska. Easterly wind will
be diminishing today for most of the area. A couple of showers
are possible in the Interior today through Saturday but there is
an abundance of dry air around, resulting a mostly dry day today
and tomorrow. Saturday will come with the best chances for
showers, especially in the Eastern Interior. An area of low
pressure dips south towards the West Coast and brings isolated
showers late tomorrow and into Saturday, then in the Western
Interior on Sunday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above
normal for most spots.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated showers today through Saturday, greatest chance in the
  Eastern Interior on Saturday.

- Breezy east-northeast winds continue today but weaken through
  the afternoon and overnight.

- Warming trend continues with highs in the mid 60s across many of
  the Interior Valleys this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet and mild weather persists today and most of tomorrow.

- A low from the northwest drops in, bringing isolated showers to
  the West Coast Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday.

- Isolated showers move to the Western Interior on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures continues for most
  of the area through the forecast period.

- A few rain and snow showers move towards the NW Arctic Coast
  and Western Brooks Range on Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 990 mb low in Bristol Bay is the main feature around the state.
There is an exiting 1026 mb high centered just south of the
Canadian Archipelago which extends westward into the Interior and
northwest into the Arctic. Generally, lower pressure will
overcome much of the state bringing increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms this weekend and especially next week as the
atmosphere moistens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry once again this afternoon. We over-estimated min RHs
yesterday as some spots got down into the upper teens. Min RHs
will likely drop to 15-20% again today, especially in the Middle
Tanana Valley. Most of the area will remain dry, but there is a
slight chance for a shower over the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. This
shower chance continues tomorrow with the highest chances coming
on Saturday as the atmosphere gradually moistens. There is little
to no chance of wetting rains. Min RHs will gradually increase to
25-30% this weekend with overnight recoveries around 45-65%
tonight and tomorrow night, then 55-75% this weekend. The areas
with the lowest max RHs will be in the Middle Tanana Valley.
Temperatures will be increasing into the mid 60s by this weekend.
Next week, we will be monitoring for increased chances for
thunderstorms across the Interior. There seems to be a risk for
storms most days next week as of now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River is open from Tanana to downstream of Mountain
Village as of Wednesday afternoon. Ice runs from upstream of
Tanana continue as ice degrades between Beaver and Rampart and
heavy ice runs are still being seen along many reaches of the
Yukon. Water levels remain low and no flooding is anticipated.

For Buckland River:
  -  The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open
    water in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is
    a mix of intact ice and open water and beyond that mostly
    open conditions towards the headwaters. Ice remains mostly
    intact downriver from Buckland, including at known jam
    points.

    -A local observer reports that water has come up two feet
    overnight 5/14 to 5/15, six more feet of rise will bring
    water levels over bank. Snow melt in the basin brings the
    potential for flooding as early as Friday if the intact ice
    below Buckland is strong enough to resist the push of water
    and ice.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A relatively quiet pattern with no major systems expected, but we
will be monitoring for daily thunderstorms beginning on Monday and
continuing through the rest of the week in the Interior. This may
be the start of our daily thunderstorm watch this summer. The
pattern looks ripe for at least increased chances for
thunderstorms each day next week. Temperatures look to be rising,
especially in the Interior with highs potentially pushing 70
degrees or higher by the end of next week and into next weekend.
There are no significant wetting rain chances expected for the
Interior.

For the West Coast though, we will be monitoring the chance for a
Bering Sea low which could bring widespread wetting rains by the
end of next week. The exact track of this low is uncertain and low
confidence but there is the chance for something floating around
the Bering Sea. There is also a chance that this low follows
climatological norms and dips into the Gulf of Alaska leading to
little to no rain. This is something that will be monitored
closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-816-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Bianco